u budut ispol'zovat'sya malen'kie avtomobili, a so vremenem - elektricheskie avtomobili. _Vodnye zapasy - neobhodimoe uslovie dlya sozdaniya regional'nogo kompleksa. Gorod dolzhen byt' svyazan s lesnichestvom, kotoroe zashchishchaet lesa. K sozhaleniyu, v nastoyashchee vremya mnozhestvo vodoemov dlya irrigacii perepolnyayutsya. K takim vodoemam sleduet otnosit'sya berezhno: odin vodoem mozhno ispol'zovat' dlya razvedeniya ryby, drugoj - dlya nakopleniya vody ili zhe ispol'zovat' eti dva vodoema poperemenno. _Regional'nyj kompleks - vazhnyj element dlya sovremennoj "myagkoj" kul'tury, osnovannoj na sel'skom hozyajstve i promyshlennosti. CHrezmernaya koncentraciya naseleniya v megapolise i nedostatochnaya chislennost' naseleniya v drugih regionah mogut byt' predotvrashcheny pri pomoshchi ravnomernogo raspredeleniya nacional'nyh kompleksov. Peremeshchenie central'nyh i drugih nacional'nyh organizacij budet sposobstvovat' rostu regional'nyh kompleksov; peredacha upravleniya ot centralizovannogo pravitel'stva k mestnym organam vlasti dolzhna byt' uskorena. _Dlya obespecheniya svyazi mezhdu regional'nymi kompleksami sozdany volokno-opticheskaya informacionnaya set' i novye vidy sredstv obshchestvennogo transporta. Avtonomnost' kazhdogo regional'nogo kompleksa umen'shit kolichestvo materialov, transportiruemyh na dal'nie rasstoyaniya, umen'shaya, takim obrazom, chislo gruzovikov, rabotayushchih na dizel'nyh dvigatelyah, kotorye segodnya yavlyayutsya sushchestvennymi istochnikami zagryazneniya vozduha. 8.7. Zaklyuchitel'nye vyvody Mehanizm recirkulyacii i regional'nyj kompleks izmenyat stil' zhizni lyudej. Sovremennaya nauka i tehnologiya prinesli razlichnye vygody chelovechestvu; odnako etimi vygodami naslazhdalas' tol'ko odna chetvertaya chast' naseleniya; zhiznennyj uroven' ostal'nyh treh chetvertej uhudshalsya. _CHtoby osushchestvit' predlozheniya, opisannye v knigah "Nasha strana, nasha planeta" [19], "Zemlya v ravnovesii" [32], "Vsemirnoe gosudarstvo" [16, 17, 33] i pr., neobhodimo izmenit' stil' nashej zhizni. Trebuetsya novyj plan dejstvij. |ti knigi rasskazyvayut nam o tom, chto u nas eshche est' shansy. Filosofiya, osnovannaya na ekspluatacii prirody, dolzhna byt' otvergnuta. My dolzhny osoznat', chto my prinadlezhim prirode. Ravnovesie prirody sejchas nahoditsya v kriticheskom sostoyanii; nauka i tehnologiya dolzhny ustanovit' principy vzaimootnoshenij v mire. My dolzhny proyavlyat' mudrost' i sderzhivat' nashe bezumie. Segodnya my stoim na perekrestke mezhdu genocidom i vyzhivaniem. _|ta kniga nachinaetsya s fundamental'nyh rassuzhdenij o cheloveke, nauke, i tehnologi. Ona rasskazyvaet o tom, pochemu i kak sovremennaya nauka i tehnologiya nevol'no veli cheloveka k propasti samounichtozheniya. |tot istoricheskij analiz privel nas k novym perspektivam i planam dejstvij. Novyj stil' zhizni, osnovannyj na vozobnovlyaemyh resursah i obuzdannyh appetitah, neobhodim dlya vyzhivaniya na nashej udivitel'noj, no ne vechnoj Zemle-materi. SPISOK LITERATURY [1] Portmann A.A. Zoologist Looks at Humankind/ translated by Schaefer J. Columbia University Press, 1900. [2] Huxley J. Evolution. The Modern Synthesis. George Allen & Unwin, 1965. [3] Webster's New World Encyclopedia. Prentice Hall, 1990. [4] Sootin H. Isaac Newton. Simon & Schuster. Inc., 1955. [5] Magill F.N. Great Events from History II. Vol.5Salem Press. P.2014-2019, 1991. [6] Ravetz J.R. Scientific Knowledge and Its Social Problems. Oxford University Press, 1971. [7] Mumford L. The Myth of the Machine: Techniques and Human Development. Harcourt Brace & World. Inc., 1967. [8] ACM Communications. Special issue on natural language processing. Vol.33. No 8, August 1990. [9] ACM Communications. Special issue on intelligent agents. Vol.37. No 7. July 1994. [10] Denbigh K. Entropy in Relation to Incomplete Knowledge. Cambridge University Press, 1985. [11] MacGregor G. The Everyman Dictionary of Religion and Philosophy. J.M. Dent & Sons Ltd. London, 1990. [12] Needam J. Science and Civilisation in China. Vol.2: History of Scientific ThoughtCambridge: The University Press, 1971. [13] Capra F. The Tao of Physics. Vantam Company USA, New Age Series, Murray Pollinger, 1975. [14] Struik D.J. A Cioncise History of Mathematics. Dover publications, Inc., 1987. [15] Tofler A. The Third Wave. William Morrow, 1980. [16] Brown L.R. et al. State of the World 1990. Worldwatch Institute, w.W. Norton & Co. Inc., 1991. [17] Brown L.R. et al. State of the World 1984. Worldwatch Institute, w.W. Norton & Co. Inc., 1984. [18] Gribbin J. The Hole in the Sky. C/o Murray pollinger. [19] Ramphal S. Our Country, The Planet - Forging A Partnership for Survival. Washington. DC 20006, 1992. [20] The Union of Scientists. Empty Promise - The Growing Case against Star Wars. Beam Press, 1986. [21] Watanabe Y. Does AIDS Destroy Mankind? Jiji-Tsushin Corp., 1986 (in Japanese). [22] Matsumoto K. What Is AIDS? Daimon Press, 1987 (in Japanese). [23] Nagai A. Devised Fear. Kodan-Sha, 1986 (in Japanese). [24] Ashima K. Disease at the End of Century. Kappa-Science, 1986 (in Japanese). [25] Yergin D. The Prince, The Epic Quest For Oil, money And Power, 1990. [26] WAES. Energy - Global Prospects 1985-2000. McGraw-Hill Co., 1977. [27] Bockris J. Energy - The Solar Hydrogen Alternative. Australia and New Zealand Book Co., 1975. [28] Kahn H. The Next 200 Years. Hundson Institute, 1976. [29] Commoner B. The Poverty of Power and Economic Crisis. Alfred A. Knopf Inc., 1976. [30] Meadows D.H., Meadows D.L. The Limits to Growth - A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. Universe Books, 1972. [31] The Global 2000 Report to the President / A report prepared by the Councilon Environmental Quality and the Department of State, 1980. [32] Senator Al Gore Earth in the Balance. Houghton Miffiin Co., 1992. [33] Brown L.R. et al. State of the World 1987. World Watch Institute, W.W. Norton & Co. Inc., 1988. [34] IIlich I. Energy and Equity. Calder & Boyars Ltd., 1979. [35] Yoshimura T. Recycling toward Super Power for Living. Chuuo-Hoki, 1992 (in Japanese). [36] Tsuchida A. Questions about Environment Protection Movements. JICC Press, 1972 (in Japanese). [37] Sato S. Science and Technology. San-Ichi Shobo, 1978 (in Japanese). [38] Sato S. Choice of Values. San-Ichi Shobo, 1982 (in Japanese). [39] Sato S. Modern Science And Mankind. San-Ichi Shobo, 1979 (in Japanese). DOPOLNITELXNYJ SPISOK LITERATURY (ot redaktorov) [1] Upravlenie riskom: Risk. Ustojchivoe razvitie. Sinergetika. M.: Nauka, 2000.431 s. (Seriya "Kibernetika: neogranichennye vozmozhnosti i vozmozhnye ogranicheniya"). [2] Modelling and Analysis of Safety, Risk and Quality in Complex Systems // Proceed.of the Intern.Scientific School MA SQR-2001, St.Peterburg, Russia, June 18-22, 2001 / by Editor I.Ryabinin and E.Slojentsev. SPb.: Omega, 370 p. [3] Ivchenko B.P., Martyshchenko L.A., Monastyrskij M.L. Teoreticheskie osnovy informacionno-statisticheskogo analiza slozhnyh sistem. SPb.: Lan', 1997. 320 s. [4] Ivchenko B.P., Martyshchenko L.A. Informacionnaya ekologiya. SPb.: Nordmed-Izdat. CHast' 1, 1998. 208 s. CHast' 2, 2000. 232 s. [5] Ivchenko B.P., Martyshchenko L.A., Tabuhov M.E. Upravlenie v ekonomicheskih i social'nyh sistemah. SPb.: Nordmed-Izdat, 2001. 247 s. [6] Ryabinin I.A. Nadezhnost' i bezopasnost' strukturno-slozhnyh sistem. - SPb.: Politehnika, 2000. 360 s. [7] Solozhencev E.D., Karasev V.V., Solozhencev V.E. Logiko-veroyatnostnye modeli riska v bankah, biznese i kachestve / Pod red. E. Solozhenceva. SPb.: Nauka, 1999. 120 s. SVEDENIYA OB AVTORAH I REDAKTORAH PEREVODA AVTORY Susumu SATO. 1930 g.r. Stepeni bakalavra, magistra i doktora poluchil v kioto Universitete sootvetstvenno v 1954, 1956 i 1960 godah. V period s 1959 po 1976 god assistent, docent i professor inzhenernogo fakul'teta Kioto Universiteta. Prinimal uchastie v nauchnyh issledovaniyah Universiteta tehnologij (Aahen, Germaniya) kak stipendiat fonda Gumbol'ta, a v 1963 godu etim zhe fondom byl priglashen v kachestve vizit-professora v Universitet Gannovera. Poluchil zvanie zasluzhennogo professora v 1944 godu, kogda ushel na pensiyu iz Kioto Universiteta. S 1994 goda po 1997 god vozglavlyal Sovet fonda obrazovaniya. Avtor neskol'kih knig po nauke, tehnologiyam mashinostroeniya. Hiromicu KUMAMOTO. 1946 g.r. Stepeni bakalavra, magistra i doktora poluchil v kioto Universitete sootvetstvenno v 1969, 1971 i 1976 godah. V period s 1976 po 19788god assistent, docent inzhenernogo fakul'teta Kioto Universiteta. S 1998 goda - professor Instituta Informatiki Kioto Universiteta. V techenie goda stazhirovalsya po obmenu v H'yuston Universitete, gde vmeste s izvestnym professorom E. Henli napisal neskol'ko knig po ocenke riska i nadezhnosti v tehnike. Oblast' nauchnyh interesov H. Kumamoto - analiz otricatel'nyh i polozhitel'nyh aspektov roli cheloveka v cheloveko-mashinnyh sistemah. Nekotorye ego knigi perevedeny na russkij yazyk. REDAKTORY PEREVODA Boris Pavlovich IVCHENKO. 1941 g.r. Direktor Instituta problem ustojchivogo razvitiya Severo-Zapadnogo regiona. Doktor tehnicheskih nauk, professor. Zasluzhennyj deyatel' nauki RF. Zasluzhennyj inzhener RF. Ob®yavlen CHelovekom 2001 goda po versii ABI, SSHA, Severnaya Karolina. |kspert Soveta Amerikanskogo biograficheskogo instituta po prisvoeniyu pochetnyh zvanij. Dejstvitel'nyj chlen i vice-prezident Akademii problem bezopasnosti, oborony i pravoporyadka. Dejstvitel'nyj chlen Rossijskoj akademii estestvennyh nauk, Rossijskoj inzhenernoj akademii, Mezhdunarodnoj akademii informatizacii. Odin iz sozdatelej nauchnogo napravleniya i avtor ryada knig po problemam informacionno-statisticheskogo analiza v slozhnyh ekologicheskih, social'nyh, ekonomicheskih i tehnicheskih sistemah. E-mail: ivchenko@peterlink.ru Evgenij Dmitrievich SOLOZHENCEV. 1939 g.r. Zaveduyushchij laboratoriej Integrirovannyh sistem avtomatizirovannogo proektirovaniya Instituta problem mashinovedeniya Rossijskoj akademii nauk. Doktor tehnicheskih nauk, professor, Zasluzhennyj deyatel' nauk RF. Specialist v oblasti ispytanij, diagnostirovaniya i upravleniem bezopasnost'yu, riskom i kachestvom slozhnyh sistem, avtor neskol'kih knig po analizu rezul'tatov ispytanij i prilozhenij logiko-veroyatnostnyh metodov v reshenii prikladnyh zadach prognozirovaniya processov v slozhnyh sistemah. E-mail: sol@sapr.ipme.ru

Tablica 4.1.

Hronologiya razvitiya proizvodstva bumagi, pechati i osnovnyh nauk

 

VOSTOK

 

ZAPAD

do n.e.

2200 -- 1500

Kitajcy izobreli pis'mennost'

 

210

Kitajcy izobreli napravlennyj sejsmograf

 

n.e.

0 -- 99

Kitajcy izobreli metody resheniya sistemy algebraicheskih uravnenij

 

 

206 -- 220

Dinastiya Ran: matematiki razrabotali "Devyat' glav vychisleniya"

 

 

105

Kitajcy izobreli proizvodstvo bumagi

 

 

300

Kitajcy izobreli pechat' s pomoshch'yu prostogo derevyannogo klishe

 

 

650

Kitajcy izobreli bumazhnye den'gi

 

 

618 -- 907

Dinastiya Tang: matematiki izobreli arifmeticheskie ryady, geometriyu, trigonometricheskie funkcii i metody resheniya uravnenij do desyatogo poryadka

 

 

 

Araby nauchilis' izgotovlyat' bumagu u kitajskih plennyh v Samarkande

768

 

960 -- 1279

Dinastiya Song: kitajcy znachitel'no uluchshili zhivotnovodstvo i sel'skohozyajstvennyj inventar'

 

 

 

Sel'skohozyajstvennaya revolyuciya u nemcev

1000 -- 1099

 

1220

Kitajcy razrabotali uchebnik po anatomii

 

 

1100

Kitajcy izobreli podvizhnye litery

 

 

 

Bumazhnoe proizvodstvo rasprostranyaetsya v mavritanskuyu Ispaniyu cherez Egipet i v Vizantiyu cherez Bagdad

1100 -- 1200

Proizvodstvo bumagi pronikaet vo Franciyu i v Zapadnuyu Evropu

1189

Pechatanie s pomoshch'yu klishe rasprostranyaetsya v Evrope cherez Islamskuyu imperiyu i Mongol'skuyu imperiyu

1380

 

1390

V Koree izobretena metallicheskaya podvizhnaya litera

 

 

 

Iogann Gutenberg (1400 -- 1468) izobrel metallicheskuyu podvizhnuyu literu

1450

Andreas Vesalius (1505 -- 1564) izdal knigu

"O rabote chelovecheskogo tela"

1543

 

Tablica 3.1.

Oboznacheniya dlya entropii i energeticheskogo balansa

U

Vnutrennyaya energiya resursa

V

Ob®em resursa

S

|ntropiya resursa

T env

Temperatura okruzhayushchej sredy

P env

Davlenie okruzhayushchej sredy

σ

|ntropiya, generiruemaya v processe proizvodstva

q

Teplo, vydelyaemoe v processe proizvodstva

W

Rabota v processe proizvodstva

∆

Simvol prirashcheniya ( ≥ 0 )

 

 

Okruzhayushchaya sreda: T out, P out

 

Ris. 3.1. |ntropiya i energeticheskij balans proizvodstvennoj sistemy

 

Ris. 4.1. Hronologiya drevnih civilizacij

 

Ris.4.2. Hronologiya Rimskoj imperii i Temnyh vekov