ments and is
tending to form its own, independent relations.
This process has been taking place throughout the 20th century. Between
1870 and 1913 world trade increased by 6% annually. Between 1918 and 1938
there was practically no growth. This can be explained by the slow processes
of reconstruction after the First World War, the Great Depression
(1929--193) and the self-imposed isolation of the USSR, Germany and a number
of other countries. After the Second World War international economic
exchange reached it highest level of progress. This was mainly driven by
Western Europe, America and Japan. Between 1946 and 1973 world trade was
increasing on average by 10% and doubled n volume from 1980--1995.
Notwithstanding wars, political confrontation and the accompanying
protectionism, the entire period of the 20th century was a time of expansion
and global economic strengthening. By resolving their conflicts countries
began more and more to see or were forced to see the advantages of the
"open" economy and to accept bi-lateral and multi-lateral customs and trade
unions. The Genoa conference in 1922 and the World Economic Conference in
1927 are of great significance despite the non-implementation of their
decisions as a result of the crisis of 1929 and the Second World War.
On the 30th of October 1947 the General Agreement of Trade and Tariffs
(GATT) was ratified. This was a milestone leading to the removal of trade
discrimination, the consolidation of the principle of "most-favoured nation"
status and the formation of customs unions. Between 1964--1967 the "Kennedy
round" of talks in which 54 nations took part lead to a 35% reduction in
trade tariffs. A further round of talks held in Tokyo in 1979 helped to
further develop this process.
Together with progress in trade there was also significant progress in
economic integration: the complete economic opening of the American states
with each other; the German customs union (1871), the Belgium-Luxembourg
economic union (1921), the European Iron and Steel Agreement and the Rome
Treaty of 1957 on the creation of a Common Market within Europe; the
Committee for Economic Cooperation (COMECON) in Eastern Europe (1949) and
the European zone for free trade (1960). Despite the political, class and
military confrontation of the 20th century there has been a constant process
of opening-up and a reduction in the significance of national borders. This
has expanded with the ratification of the Latin American Association for
Free Trade (LAFTA) in 1960 the Caribbean Common Market (CARICOM) in 1973. At
the beginning of the 1990's a new stage in European integration began with
the reatification of the Maastricht treaty. The NAFTA agreement on free
trade in North America was also signed in 1993.
I mention these facts in order to show once again the constant increase
in the integrational processes taking place within the entire world. As a
result total world trade has grown from 1635 billion USD in 1979 to 1915
billion USD in 1984 to 3667.6 billion USD in 1992. Through the exchange of
goods and services the entire world has become linked within a single
system. The major factor for integration is the exchange of goods in the
area of:
-- communications, including satellite television, international
telephone links and electronic mail, these advances are particularly
significant;
-- petrol which despite a marked decline has continued to account for
one third of world energy consumption;
-- food and raw agricultural products .-- trade with grain, sugar and
coffee are amongst the most important factors;
-- metals and ore;
-- transport and machine building -- planes, cars, ships etc.. the
production of which is continuing to increase.
A significant new phenomenon in recent decades has been the linking of
the financial systems of practically all the countries of the world into a
unified system. In the 16--18th century world trade was carried out on the
basis of national currencies, gold and silver. During this same period
international trade was also based on trade credits and exchange of goods
for goods. It was only in the second half of the 19th century that the most
industrialised countries accepted the gold standard and the predominance of
the British Pound Sterling. Up until the 1930's this system remained, in
general terms, in force.
Later it was replaced by the Brenton Woods agreement and the domination
of the American dollar. At the beginning of the 1970's the Brenton Woods
system gave way to floating exchange rates and open financial and currency
markets. The predominance of the British Pound was undermined as a result of
the reduced importance and the collapse of the British Empire. However, the
reason for the changes which took place in the 1970's was the impossibility
of any single national currency to monopolise international markets. This is
a further demonstration of a common phenomenon, globalisation does not
stimulate monopolies but, on the contrary, it creates the conditions for
their destruction.
In recent decades the world has witnessed the hitherto unseen linkage
of countries and nations via currency and financial mechanisms. The
replacement of the Brenton Woods system was in fact the removal of the last
barriers to the multi-directional fusion of national currencies and exchange
rates and to banking and stock exchange operations. Floating exchange rates
served as a shock absorber for the resolution of differences and a bridge
for overcoming global economic imbalance. During the last 20 years the trade
in securities reached previously unknown levels. The trade in international
bonds has increased from 76.3 to 167.3 billion dollars[54]. In
practice this has meant the growing mutual dependency of capital markets. We
can add to this the enormous increase in Euro-dollar markets. After the fall
of the Berlin Wall the processes of linkage of the capital markets in all
the countries of the world has become undisputed and to a large extent
irreversible.
Another particulary important indicator of this are the currency
policies of practically all the countries in the world. Through a system of
mutual convertibility, the maintenance of official reserves in varying
currencies and the greater independence of commercial banks, the national
economies of countries over the world have become more dependent on each
other. After the beginning of the 1970's the international role of the
dollar began to subside slowly. This could be seen in the reduction in the
size of the official dollar reserves of the industrialised countries to be
replaced in the main by the German mark and the Japanese yen.
Perhaps the clearest indicator of the economic growth of the Fourth
Civilisation is the level of direct investments and the development of
trans-national corporations. In the world today there are 37,000
trans-national corporations with over 170,000 branches. Of these, 24,000
corporations are based in the developed countries, 2700 in the developing
countries (mainly, South Korea, Hong Kong, Brazil and China) and less than
500 in Central and Eastern Europe. In 1992, the global volume of direct
investments reached 2 trillion dollars accounting for a level of sales by
the foreign branches of the trans-national corporations of 5.5 trillion
dollars.[55]
As each year goes by the internationalisation of industry increases
which will lead to the intermixing of cultures, manufacturing structures and
changes in the awareness of billions of people. Everywhere in the world, the
USA or France, Russia or Rumania, Kenya or Ruanda people are becoming more
and more aware of the influence of the world economy on their day to day
life. Most significantly the houses in which we live and the services which
we use are becoming more and more internationalised. I do not know whether
it is an exaggeration to say that the modern citizen of the world is a
"product of the world". Everywhere in the world, even in the most isolated
of countries you will come across cars from the USA, Japan and Germany,
household goods from Italy, coffee and fruit from Latin America, electrical
goods from Hong Kong and Japan, carpets from Iran or Bulgaria and clothes
from China and India etc.. If you take a look at the raw materials used in
the production of the finished goods then you will see the labour and the
talents of millions of people from many countries.
All this might be summed up as two basic phenomena which show the end
of one human civilisation and the beginning of another.
The first of these phenomena is that the mutual dependence of countries
has reached a level at which nation states, autonomous religions and
cultures can no longer historically dominate the processes of integration
and universal human interests. It is true that the danger of new class,
cultural and religious divisions is still possible but the trend towards
world integration is becoming more and more irreversible.
The new factor is that the most integrated regions in North America,
Europe and Japan have created sound economic and financial links with each
other. This has also lead to the involvement of all the remaining countries
in the world in the global economy. If we take foreign investments as our
criteria, we will see that at the beginning of the 1990's the three main
economic centres of the world had direct influence over about 50 other
satellite countries which accounted for over 3/4 of the world economic
product. Today, there is not a single country which can exclude itself from
the world economy without causing serious damage to its own development. The
attempts by North Korea, Iraq and in the recent past, Albania and Cuba to
develop independently in conditions of self-sufficiency have lead to their
economic collapse. The huge level of economic inter-dependence in the world
has lead to more than just closer integration. When different systems grow
closer they form a common, more universal community which is more vital than
any individual national or regional, economic or political force.
The second phenomenon is the formation of economic forces for which
national identity is more formal than essential. Not only in terms of
behaviour, interests and structures these forces belong more to the world
than to any particular nation state. Above all, these are a part of the
trans-national corporations whose economic activities are spread throughout
a number of countries and whose connections and dependencies upon national
governments are of less significance than, for example, the state of the
London Stock Exchange. We could also look at the large number of financial
institutions who operate on a global level not as the citizens of any
particular country but as citizens of the world.
I believe that both the level of mutual economic dependency of
countries as well as the several thousand trans-national manufacturing and
financial corporations form the economic nucleus of the new civilisation. At
the end of the 20th century these structures which control the majority of
world manufacturing and trade are the most powerful globalising force in the
world. The 20th century was a time when the global world was born but also a
time of the creation of supra-national economic structures and the essence
of a new civilisation.
When I speak of the economic nucleus of the Fourth Civilisation, I mean
the influence it has on all areas of life and that the objective changes
brought about by the integration of manufacturing and finances have imposed
profound changes in the world economic order.
2. NEW GROWTH AND NEW STRUCTURES
The trend of the 20th century towards the constant opening-up of
national economies will continue at an increasing rate for the next few
decades. This will cause the wide-scale redistribution of manufacturing
forces and their re-structuring on a branch level. The dynamics of national
and world economic growth will be determined more and more by international
exchange...
T
here is not doubt that the globalisation of the world economy is
accelerating. According to the predictions of the World Trade Organisation
the volume of goods traded in 1995 will increase by 8%. In 1994 this figure
was 9.4%. The fact that during the past ten years, world trade has grown
faster than the annual global domestic product (see table 8) shows that the
integration and opening-up of national borders continues to be a dominant
process.
Table 8
% annual growth
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
World Trade
8,0
2,5
4,1
5,3
7,9
6,5
4,5
3,5
4,0
3,5
9,5
World GDP
6,0
2,4
2,8
2,9
4,9
3,4
0,5
-2
-0,5
0,2
2,4
Source: World Trade Organisation.
How can this phenomenon be explained? Why for the greater part of the
20th century has world trade been greater than manufacturing? My brief
response to these two questions is as follows: the constant growth of world
exchange has been caused not only by the growth of manufacturing but also by
the cultural and political opening-up of countries, the laws of human
progress and technological development. The vast majority of the governments
in the countries of the world realise that the effectiveness of their
efforts and the wealth of their citizens depends on export and their
successful involvement in the international distribution of labour. It has
become beneficial not only to exchange newly manufactured products but also
those products created in the recent past as well as knowledge, services and
personnel.
Of particular significance is the difference between the growth of
trade and the growth in World Gross Product over the past six years
(1990--1995) or since the collapse of the Berlin Wall. There has been a rise
in the levels of export from the most developed nations to Eastern Europe
and Russia and a continuous increase in the exchange of trade with China. In
1984 alone the progressive Asian economies, including China but with the
exception of Japan, achieved a 20% increase in their services trade. There
is a simultaneous related increase in Eastern Asia and Central and Eastern
Europe. There is no doubt that we are witnessing a new rise in world trade
and a reduction in the significance of national borders. If we exclude
Africa and the Near East, there is evidence almost everywhere of a growth in
world trade and the resulting economic revival.
The growth of export is a feature of future change in the structure of
product manufacture. The most dynamic group of new products in recent years
has been telecommunications and office equipment. I believe that
telecommunications will continue to increase their share of world trade and
will be the most dynamic and profitable export area. This will result in
increased communications between people and the intermixing of cultures and
manufacture in the world. Telecommunications are a symbol of the Fourth
Civilisation and the main technological channel for its development.
Clearly telecommunications will continue to contribute to the
re-structuring of social life and the stimulation of growth, the opening-up
of the world and the linkage of millions and billions of people. The main
integrational effect will be the linking of the new communications
technologies to televisions and computer technology. The American media
group "Time Warner" has already developed and begun to market the first
digital interactive television network in the world. Their "Full Service
Network" permits its subscribers to carry out banking operations from home,
to receive information about products, services and events, to buy and to
order and to see new films etc.. Consumers' choice is guaranteed. However,
at the same time, this allows the television companies to guarantee their
monopoly of the market. Whatever happens in the future, there is little
doubt that telecommunications will continue to expand their share of world
trade and be a key factor in economic development and structural and social
changes. Together with world finance which has developed as a result of
improved world communications, telecommunications will continue to be the
most attractive area of the world economy. The Internet has allowed tens of
millions of people over the entire world have become part of a single
network of communications and access to information. Computer networks will
lead to revolutionary changes in finances, trade and manufacturing.
Despite certain serious predictions concerning a fall in profits from
manufacture and sale of aeroplanes[56], I believe that all modern
forms of transport will continue to grow dynamically. People of different
races, ethnic groups and cultures are coming closer to one another, running
to embrace each other. They are beginning to realise how useful it is to
travel together and to meet and use the experience of others.
The conclusion which seems to suggest itself is that the branches of
the Fourth Civilisation (telecommunications, finances, services, computers,
information technology, transport, services etc..) have made life more
integrated and are a product of the new inter-dependency which is required
by humanity. The process will not stop here. On the basis of these key
branches of the New Civilisation, still more, newer, branches will be
formed. Television and telephones will spur the creation of new audio-visual
telephones. Paging systems and mobile telephones will become cheaper and
will allow parents to have more control over their children and to gain
information from their teachers. Doctors and policemen will be called to
where they are needed. This will change politics and management. It will
ease and change ways of voting. There is already software available for
conducting trade over the computer with full legal support.
In ancient times peoples were separated from one another by years of
travel. In the Middle Ages the distance shortened to months. In modern times
distances can be covered in days. In the New Civilisation the whole of
humanity is connected within hours, minutes and seconds. I recently had to
fly from Sofia to Honolulu by Lufthansa and United Airlines. I covered the
distance in 15--16 hours. Twenty time zones to the other side of the globe
in 16 hours! I am convinced that in the Fourth Civilisation people will be
able to circumnavigate the world in less time. Despite the opinions of
certain sceptics I am sure that transport will continue to improve and
develop with leaps and bounds. This applies to car manufacturing, aeroplane
construction, shipbuilding and certain other completely new forms of
transport. This will also provide new prospects for world economic growth.
New technologies will continue to stimulate this growth and the dynamic
processes will never stop despite the critics who believe that the computer
and audio-visual market are already satiated. The limits of high technology
growth and integrational products have not yet been reached.
It is not certain whether this growth will dominate the world economy
as a whole. It is most likely that the next 10--20 years will be years of
technological progress but also slow reconstruction. The lack of
manageability and even elementary order within the world economy means that
it is not clear which of the two will gain the upper hand.
Above all this requires the replacement of old industrial production
with new technology, a process which has been in progress for the past 15
years. This process, however, should not be perceived as the elementary
replacement of the "factory chimney with the computer", as some philosophers
believe. The old industrial sectors (metallurgy, chemicals, machine tool
engineering, energy production, transport) will be partially reconstructed,
partially relocated to the lesser developed countries for the sake of
cheaper labour and the lack of environmental pressure groups and opposition.
One only has to look to see what is happening with the automobile industry,
machine tool production, electronics and the electronics industry and
chemical production. Everything now involves new high technology and
computers. In modern automobile construction as much money is now spent on
new electronics as on improvements to engine design. The new generation of
aeroplanes, "Boeing" and "Airbus" are practically operated from the ground
taking off and landing using electronic equipment, while the pilots fulfil
mainly regulatory functions. The chemical industry is re-orienting itself to
new, environmentally clean technology and hitherto unknown products. The
construction industry is investing more and more in new highly resistant
materials. Just as in the 19th and 20th century the industrial revolution
lead to revolutions in agriculture without replacing it, the new technology
of the New Civilisation will revolutionise industrial technology and will
change their essence but will not destroy it. Development does not allow for
absolute rejection. Revolution itself always means the addition of the new
to the old and its transformation. It has been interpreted in other ways in
history, but that was just destruction.
The second very important area in the restructuring of the world
economy, in my opinion, is the huge process of the geographical
re-distribution of world production. Today, the citizens, trade unions and
politicians in Bavaria and California are concerned about the re-location of
manufacturing facilities to the countries of South East Asia and Latin
America. Millions of people are suffering as a result of the reduction in
military production, as is the case in California. This fact cannot be
ignored, but this is only the beginning. The modern geographical
distribution of world production was formed at a time of colonial power and
consolidated during the bi-polar world. Given the new world conditions of
the Fourth Civilisation, things will have to change out of all recognition.
As paradoxical as it may sound even the direction of investments will have
to change. Amongst the favourites are the countries of South East Asia. The
export of manufacturing potential from North America and Europe will expand.
This will consist mainly of those products which can be easily adapted to
the new technologies and the constant increase in the cost of labour in the
industrialised countries. Finally, the advent of the New Civilisation will
be accompanied by the closure of a number of manufacturing processes. This
process will be more intense than at any other time during the whole of the
20th century.
Whether we live in New York, Tokyo, Belgrade or Dakkar we are living in
a state of transition between two civilisations. This is a technological
transition, a transition in the nature of economic development. New
manufacturing sectors and products will come to the fore. The distinct
division between intellectual and physical labour and the manufacturing and
non-manufacturing sector will disappear. This is indisputable and supported
not only by P.Drucker but also by the chairman of the majority in the US
Congress N.Greenwich.
The state of change is indeed similar to that which existed at the end
of the 18th century and the beginning of the 19th. Let us hope that the
consequences for the people of the world will not be as dramatic as they
were then. During the processes of industrialisation millions of people were
thrown out onto the streets or transformed into factory slaves. The
developed societies were divided into classes causing huge social unrest.
Today the experience of the past and the bitter lessons of the 20th century
provide us with the hope that the great changes in technological and
economic growth will not inevitably lead to chaos and social strife.
3. WHO WILL DOMINATE THE WORLD ECONOMY
Recently, everyone has been trying to convince us that the three
economic centres -- the USA, Japan and Europe dominate the world and that
the technological and financial power of Japan will replace the economic
power of the East. I do not believe in these prospects...
D
uring the Third Civilisation the power of countries was determined by
their military and political power. This was based on economic strength but
was not always the most decisive element in the consolidation of power of
one country over another. The Ottoman Empire was not more advanced
materially when between the 13--16th centuries it conquered one third of
Europe as far north as Vienna. France under Napoleon the 1st was no stronger
economically than the rest of the countries in Europe but managed to conquer
with better military organisation and leadership.
The Fourth Civilisation precludes the military resolution of conflicts.
The achievement of nuclear parity and the nature of nuclear weapons makes it
absurd to wage nuclear war. This is also true conventional conflicts as
well. Let us take the example of the war in Bosnia. There have been over
200,000 deaths (perhaps many more), the complete destruction of industry and
infrastructure, valleys of blood and violence. The war ended with the
signing of the peace accord in Dayton, USA which brought the sides back to
their starting points. The reason for such absurdities is the potential
possibility of the mutual neutralisation of the nuclear powers and their
influence on the smaller warring countries.
I begin this chapter in this way since in the 1960's and 1970's when
nuclear parity was achieved a "new concept" of world economic domination was
born. There are still people in a number of countries who believe that the
USA or Japan can play the role of a world economic super power. In the 20th
century many countries have aspired to such a role but all of them lost in
the long run. I believe that today on the basis of the laws of human
development the imposition of economic domination by one country or a group
of countries over the rest can only be a temporary state. In the context of
globalisation the economic levels of the countries of the world have begun
to level out. This process can only be stopped by political coercion or the
isolation of countries from each other. In the civilisations which have
existed up until now, nations began their development in different climatic
conditions and with different resources. In the 19th and 20th centuries
these same nations began to realise how wide was the gap had grown between
them.
During the last 50 years a series of processes began to take place
within the heart of the bi-polar model which proved that economic domination
from an historical point of view is purely illusory. Let us take as an
example the most powerful institutions of the world economy, the
trans-national corporations. Immediately after the Second World War the
American corporations were the undisputed dominating forces of the world
economy and only a group of British companies managed to upset their
hegemony. In 1962 of the 500 largest companies in the world, 300 (with a
total product of 365 billion dollars) were in the USA and 200 (with a total
product of 174 billion USD) in other countries. Today this picture has
changed beyond recognition. In 1992, of the 50 largest industrial companies
in the world, only 14 were in the USA, 13 in Japan, 2 in the U.K., 7 in
Germany, 3 in Italy, 5 in France, 2 in South Korea etc.. This trend will
continue. We can expect a serious increase in trans-national companies from
Germany, Russia, South Korea, Brazil and also a number of smaller countries.
The process of levelling will take place slowly. This is the inevitable
result of the opening and expansion of the world market. In contrast to 40
or 50 years ago, today investments, manufacturing processes and goods are
being exported everywhere it is economically viable to do so. At the
beginning of the new technological revolution in the 1970's and 1980's
investments were directed at the most developed nations which had educated
and well-trained personnel. I believe that since the 1990's a significant
part of the world investments will be redirected mainly to some of the new
"dragons" of South East Asia, Australia, China, Latin America and, given
greater political stability, Eastern Europe.
Similar changes are taking place in the commodity and stock markets.
Only a few years ago the stock exchanges in New York and London were
dominant. Today the Tokyo stock exchange has changed all that and is now
quite convincingly the leading stock market in the world. There has been a
gradual, almost invisible process whereby the new financial markets have
developed. This will lead to the re-distribution of the economic power and
new hitherto unseen trends.
Until the end of the 1980's and in particular during the period of the
Cold War, the major criterion for political and economic power was still
closely associated with the military and armaments industry. If the positive
trends of world development continue economic power will depend more on
technology, information and resources and will guarantee the future of
promising industrial sectors. This will lead to the re-determination of the
power and wealth of the countries and nations of the world and their place
in the global division of labour. The new technologies will not permit
monopolisation. They will guarantee advantages for the countries which
possess them only until they are mastered by other countries. High
technology in the modern world is being spread via the trans-national
corporations and the activities of governments.
Japan, despite its world domination in the development and production
of new technology is also a major exporter of high-tech products and
know-how. In South East Asia and Latin America there are number of
production facilities with the most modern telecommunications technology.
Competition between the trans-national corporations is the main reason for
this. I believe that this is in principle impossible for technology and
information to be monopolised in the aims of the domination of certain
countries over others especially in the context of the modern scientific and
technological revolution. The New Civilisation will still maintain the trend
of the free movement of technology and information.
The direct result of this is the formation over the past 30--40 years
of a new global distribution of manufacturing and technological priorities.
Each of the developed countries to a certain extent have found their market
niches and has established itself in world export. For example at the
beginning of the 1970's the USA exported 77.5% of world aeroplane
production; 44.1% of organic chemicals; 55.9% of office equipment; 35.2% of
computer technology; 39.3% of industrial refrigeration; 35.8% of grain and
37.1% of steel export etc.. In 1985 Germany accounted for 23.2% of world
automobile export; 19.8% of plastics; 51.5% of rotary printing presses;
32.4% of synthetic organic dies; 34.1% of packaging equipment; 30.4% of
textile and leather processing machinery. In the same years, 1985, Japan
possessed 30.8% of world automobile export; 37.5% of lorries and trucks;
80.7% of televisions and tape recorders; 82% of motorcycles; 62.2% of
cameras and video-cameras; 55.7% of microphones and amplifiers; 37.9% of
peripheral electronic equipment and 31.7% of tankers etc.. It is interesting
that during the same period a number of smaller countries achieved
significant levels of long-term exports. For example Sweden accounted for
41.7% of the world export of paper and boxes; 17.2% of centrifuges; 15.5% of
sulphate cellulose. The Swiss accounted for 45.1% of textile looms; 34% of
wrist watches; 25.3% of synthetic dies and 20.6% of
herbicides.[57]
Another criterion is the state of the available natural resources in a
given country and whether they can exert influence on the power and strength
of countries and their role in the world economy. The freer the exchange of
goods, services and labour the more open countries become to each other. In
this case the power of countries will be determined by their total national
wealth based not only the existing manufacturing facilities but also on the
available natural resources. On the basis of this logic, in September 1995
the World Bank published an analysis of the ecologically sustainable
development and the natural resources of the countries of the world.
Accordance to their classification of the available national wealth per head
of population (table 9) Australia came out in first place followed by
Canada, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Japan.
The USA was quite far down the list in 12th place and Germany in 15th.
Other countries with enormous reserves of natural resources such as Russia,
Brazil, Argentina and others are outside the classification due to their low
levels of existing production facilities and human resources. The
methodology of the World Bank is flawless: resources are of benefit when
there is an adequate material base and human resources. On the other hand,
those countries who do not have such resources will have to pay for them and
to compensate for the inequity with more labour and technology.
Table 9
Classification of the 15 leading countries on the basis of national
wealth
per head of population.
State
Wealth per head of population
Sources of national wealth %
population
capital assets
natural resources
Australia
Canada
Luxemburg
Switzerland
Japan
Sweden
Iceland
Qatar
UAE
Denmark
Norway
USA
France
Kuwait
Germany
835
704
658
647
565
496
486
473
471
463
424
421
413
405
399
21
22
83
78
81
56
23
51
65
76
48
59
77
62
79
7
9
12
19
18
16
16
11
14
17
22
16
17
9
17
71
69
4
3
2
29
61
39
21
7
30
25
7
29
4
Source: World Bank, 1985
These figures show the constant increase in the number of countries
with an established position in the global division of labour. There are at
least 30 countries with a high level of economic potential and another 60 or
70 with the potential to join them in the next 30 or 40 years. Most
significantly, in the current situation no one country can impose a monopoly
on another. The USA, Europe and Japan are inter-dependent on each other.
Their mutual dependence is unilateral and is not only between the three
established economic centres. As a result of structural reforms in the world
economy, there is a whole group of countries aspiring to reach the levels of
the top three and as a result of narrow specialisation and resources they
will soon catch up with them.
Is it then true that economic power will move from the USA and Europe
to Japan? A number of academics seem to believe this. I believe that this is
possible but that it will be a short-term and limited trend. The reason is
that the global market is now strongly influenced by significant market
forces which are capable of balancing out the economic levels of the
country. Only with strong protectionism or as a result of political
cataclysm will one country or another be able to reach a situation of
monopoly or privilege. During the entire period of the 20th century only as
a result of political and military conflicts has one or a group of nations
been able to establish such a position of privilege which has transformed it
into a political force.
This time is over. No-one any longer recognises the legality of
protectionism or uses political arguments in the resolution of ordinary
economic issues. The choice is great and the competition offers better
alternatives. Manufacturers and merchants in the whole world are forcing
their governments to remove prohibitions and limitations. There is a number
of cases where the opposite is true, for example the European agricultural
policies and the limitations on import into Japan. However, no-one can be
convinced of the strategic benefit of such policies. The Fourth Civilisation
offers simultaneously the gradual approximation of economic levels and the
creation of similar, equitable conditions for economic activity and the
mutual conditionality of these two processes. The 20th century opened the
way for this process which is irreversible whatever difficulties the
transition might bring.
Despite the influence of Japanese commercial, manufacturing and
investment expansion and despite the fact that in the 1970's and 1980's
Japan was the most dynamic economic force in the world, I believe it will
not be remain single most powerful leader of the world economy. The economic
dynamics of South Eastern Asia will continue but this will give rise to a
reverse wave of investments to other regions and countries. It is true that
in the last 15 years the USA has lost a part of its share of the world
market and Japan has increased its market share by 15%. The American share
of the heavy machinery market has fallen from 25% to 5% in 30 years while
Japan has increased its share from 0% to 22%[58]. However, even
this cannot convince me that this process will continue to develop
unilaterally and that the Japanese economy will dominate while the American
economy will flounder as this was once predicted by the former director of
the European Bank, Jacques Atalie.
I am writing these lines early in the morning in perhaps one of the
least American and the most Japanese of the United States of the America. I
can see through my window the waking lights of the beautiful capital city
and perhaps one of the most beautiful places in the world. My first
impression is that the atmosphere is mainly Asian and in particular
Japanese. Only the liberal spirit of the USA could allow for the mass
concentration of Japanese, Chinese, Korean and Vietnamese influences in a
single, albeit island, state. It is here that I can understand the arguments
in favour of another type of thinking, that the majority of the older Asian
immigrants as well as the new arrivals consider themselves to be Americans
or at least citizens of the world and that Honolulu has become a bridge
between the USA and Japan and that it is such bridges which create a
balanced market.
Japan and the smaller Asian "dragons" cannot become the masters of the
world. However, they have indisputably destroyed the economic, technological
and financial monopoly of the Atlantic countries of the USA and Europe. They
have created conditions for a completely new distribution of world
manufacturing production and hitherto unknown geo-economic structures. In
the 19th century Britain and France and eventually Germany dominated the
world. During the first half of the 20th century the USA and the USSR caught
up and eventually became the world leaders in a bi-polar world. Between 19