:


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     THE MYTHICAL MAN-MONTH
     (Essays on Software Engineering)
     ADDISON-WESLEY PUBLISHING COMPANY READING 1975

     Copyright  (c)   1975  by  Acldison-Wesley   Publishing  Company,  Inc.
Philippines;  Copyright  1975  by  Addison-Wesley Publishing  Company,  Inc.
Copvrisht (c) 1972 by Frederick P. Brooks, Jr.
     OCR, formating: Jek , Alex Buloichik
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       1975 
        ,           IBM  
 :   .   ,    
  -      ,     .  ,   
    .
       1995 
      ,    .
        1995 
          , " -" 
   20   .    250 000  .
   ,        ,   1975
,  -   ,    ,     
.    ,             
,         .
           (Peter   Gordon),         
 Addison-Wesley,           
1980  .          .      
 ,     ,  
 ,   ,     .
        16   "   :    
     ",   IFIPS  (
         )    1986      
  ,           
        , 
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      IEEE  "Computer"   1987 ,   
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      "  "   .    ,   
             ,
                        
          
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       19               
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          " ",     
    .      ,             
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    .      1986              
                
,     .    
     .
                
      ,          
 .    ,          
    ,      
     ,    (Barry Boehm),
    (Ken  Brooks),     (Dick  Case),      (James
Coggins),    (Tom  DeMarco),     (Jim McCarthy), 
  (David Parnas),     (Earl Wheeler)      (Edward
Yordon).      (Fay  Ward)        ,
    .
                 
         (Gordon Bell), 
 (Bruce  Buchanan),    - (Rick  Hayes-Roth)   
   -    ,    (Rebekah Bierly) -
        ,       
 16.       "" (essence)
   ""   (accident)            ,
              
.
       Addison-Wesley          
 1975           
 .       :  
(Norman  Stenton),    ,     
(Herbert  Boes),     .      
,         : "   
    ".   ,   
       . (     
        .)    ,
   ,      .
     Soli  Deo  gloria -     ! F. P.  B.,  Jr.    ,
 
      1995
        
                    
          - 
  ,    .     
  -      ,     
.          .
     ,           AFIPS,
      .          
,             .   ,
                  ,
,  ,   .
           
   ,      1956-1963  ,  
        , 
,   ,   .   1964    
    Operating System/360,   ,   
       ,    
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        OS/360    ,   
.    ,          .  .
 (F. M.  Trapnell),    .   
      ,       
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OS/360   ,      . 
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1964-65         .  , 
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       1965  IBM     ,    ,
    OS/360         ,
              .   
,       ,              
          System/360,    
,         OS/360  -   .   
          
  .
                
. .  (R. P. Case),     1964-65  ,  
. . ,    1965-68  .    
        ,       .  .
 (F. J. Corbato)   ,   (John Harr)  .  (V.
Vyssotsky)   Bell  Telephone  Laboratories,      (Charles
Portman)      International  Computers   Limited,   .   .      
       ,    .
.  (A. M. Pietrasanta)  IBM.
                        ,
  ,   
     .
           ,     ,
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                   ,    
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             ,     
,          ,       
   .
             (Sara  Elizabeth  Moore),
     (David Wagner)         (Rebecca
Burris)       ,     
 (Joseph C. Sloane)     .
     F. P. B., Jr.
      ,  
      1974




    1.

Een Schip op bet strand is een baken in zee. [ - .] - . , , . , , , . : . , , . , - . , - . . , . , . , , . , , . , , , 1000 , , , . ? , , , . 1.1 . , , . , - , . , , . . . , , , . . , . , , . , . , . , , , . , , , , . . 1.1 . , , . , . , - , /, . , , . , . , . , , , . , . 1.1 . . , , . , . ? , ? -, , - . , , , - , . , - , , , . -, , . , . - , " ". -, , , . . -, , , . -, , , - , , . , . , , . , . , , , . ( , .) , , , , , , . , , , . . , , , . , , , . , , , , . -, . . , , . , . , .1 , , . . , . , , , , . ( ) . . , , , , ( ) . , , , , . "" , - , "" - . , . , , , . , , . , , - , , , ( ). . , . , . , , , , , . , . . , . , . . , , , . , , . - , , . , . - .

    2. "-"

, . , , . "" - - , . ? -, . , , . -, , , . -, , , - "". -, . . -, . , . . , , . . . - . , , - . , , , . , , , . , : " !" : " !" , , , .. , "" . . (Dorothy Cayers) " " ("The Mind of the Maker") : , , . , , , , . , , , - , . , - , , . , , . , - , . , , . . , , "". , , . , , - , . , "" - , . . - . , , . - . , . , , . , , . , . , , . - , : -. . . - . . 2.1 - , , (. 2.1). , , . . 2.2 - , , (. 2.2). , . , . . 2.3 - , , , , . , (. 2.3). - . , , . , . . 2.4 - . , n(n-2)/2. , , - . , .. , . , 2.4. - , , . , . . , , "". , . - . . : 1/3 - , 1/6 - , 1/4 - , 1/4 - . : 1. , . . 2. , , . 3. , , .. , . , , , , . , .2 . , , . , , . , . . , ( , ..), . , . . , , , . , , , , : . . : . : - . , , . , , , . , , , - , , . , . , , , .. . , , , , . , ? , . 2.1-2.4, . .3 , 12 -, 4 , A, B, C D, (. 2.5). . 2.5 , . ? 1. , , , .. 2.6 . , 9 - , 4 , . . 2.6 2. , , , .. 2.7. , 18 - , 9 . . . 2.7 3. . , . (P. Fagg), : " ". , , , . 4. . , , . , , . , , , . , , . , , (. 2.8). , , , . , 3 - , . , , , . , . , 7 -, 5 . 2.8 , (. . 2.6). , , 4, 2 . , . , , 3, , , 7 , , . , . , 1 , . , . . . 2.8 , . 1 , , 2.7, 6 . , . , , . , : , . -. , . . , . ( .) , , , . - , .

    3.

, . , 1 , , , , . . - ? . , . . (Sackman), (Erikson) (Grant) . 10:1 5:1 ! , , 20 , , 10 . , . - . ( , .) , , , , ( ). , . , , , , , , , . , , : OS/360, Exec 8, Scop 6600, Multics, TSS, SAGE . : 200 , , , 175 , . . , , , , 10 . , . , , , . , 200 , . , , OS/360. 1000 - , , , , , , .. 1963 1966 , , , 5000 -. , 25 , ! : - . , OS/360 , , 10 . , ( ). , . , . , 5000/(10*7*7)=10, .. 5000 - 10 . 10 ? . , . , . ? 2,3. , , , . , , , , . , , . , . ? , ? , . . . , , , . , PL/I, , , , . , , , - . . "" , , . - , , . , . . . . , , - . , - . . - , , , .., . , , , , , . , , , , . . . . , . , , . - , , , . . . , , , . . . , , . , . . , . " " , , - . , , , , , , - . , . , , , . , , . . . . , . , , , - , , . , , , . , , . . , . , , , , , , . . . Algol , - , . , . , , . , . (- ) . . 10 , . . , , , , uno animo ( ). " - ". -, , . , . , .., . -, , . , , , , . , . - - uno animo. , , , 3.1. 3 , . , . . , , , , 20 30, 5000 -. 10 , . , ? , . 200 , 20 - . . 3.1 10 , . , , , , . , , . , .

    4. ,

. , , , ... , , , , , . , , , , , , . . 1 , , . "" , . , , . . , . , , . , , , . , , . , , , , . , . , , . : - ? - , - , -, , - ? - ? - , , ? - . , , , , . : - . , , . , , , . , , . , IBM 650, - . , . , . . Operating System/360 , - , , . , . , PDP-10 . , OS/360. , , . , . - . TRAC, , Algol 68 , . , , . , . , , , . . . . , , . , , , , , . , . . . - -, . 31 . IBM Stretch System/360. Operating System/360, . . . . , . - , . , , . - , , ..2 . (Blaauw), " , , - , ".3 , , . , , , . , : . , System/360 - . , , Model 30 : System/360, 224 , 1401.4 . Fortran IV. , . : , , ad hoc. , . . , , , ? , ? , , , ? . , , , . . , , . , , . , , , . , , . , , , , , . , , - . , . , , . , . , , , . , / , - . , , , . , , " ". - , . . , Stretch , ; , , System/360 Model 30, , Model 75. , , , . , , . .5 . . (R. W. Conway), PL/C PL/I. : " , ."6 , ? , . , , OS/360. , , . 10 . , . 10 - , . 150 . , , . , , . , , 150 . , , : , . . . , - , , , . , , 150 . , . , , : - . - . - , . . . , . , . , , . . . , . , . ? , : , . , . , , , . , , .. , , . , , , , , . . . . , , . . , . , , . . . . , , , .7 , , , , , . , , , . : . , .

    5.

Adde parvum parvo magnus acervus erit. [ , .] , ? - , . , . , , , , . , . , - , . . . , , - . , , . , , , , - , . , , : , . , , . , : - , , , , , ; - , ; - , ; - . . - - . - . , , , . , "". " ". , , , , . . , , . , . , , " ". , , IBM 709, 7090. - , 704. , . , Stretch, , . (Strachey): , Stretch . , , , , , , .1 Operating System/360 . 1410-7010, Stretch, Project Mercury IBSYS 7090. - . OS/360 , Stretch , , . , OS/360 26 , 31 ( 366- ). . , . - , . OS/360 , . , . . - . , . . . , . , , , - . . , , , , ! , , , . , - . , , . TESTRAN. , . , . Share Operating System3 709. . . . , , TESTRAN, ! - , . , , 1410-7010 - , , -, , , . OS/360 . OS/360 , . , . ? , . , , , , . , , , , , : x m n . , . ? , . , , , .

    6.

: " ! !" . . . " "1 , , , , ? 10 , 1000 ? System/360 , . - , , , , . . , , , . , , . : . , , , , . - , . , . , . , , . , . " System/360" , : . , , . -, , . System/360 , . - . , - " System/360". System/360. , , , , , , , , . , . , , , . , , , . , . . , , . . , . : , . - . , . . , . . . , , . , : . , , . , , - , . . Algol 68 , . PL/I , - . System/360 , . . -, .2 PL/I , .3 APL , , IBM 70904 System/360.7 , , , DEC PDP-8,6 70906 System/360.7 , . , , . , . , , , . , . , . . ? ! , , . . - . . , , . . . , . , , . , . . ; . . , , IBM 1401 System/360, 30 "" - , . . , , , . , , - , . . , . -, . , , - - . . , . . , . ( %INCLUDE PL/I). , , , , , . , . . . - . , . . , . , . . , "" "". , . . , , . . - , , . : 1. - , - . , . 2. , , . "" . . 3. , . 4. , , . 5. . , . - . , . , . " ", . ( , .) . , , . System/360. 200 , , . . ( ) , , . " " , , . , , . System/360 : , . ; . . , , . , , . , . , , , , . . , . , , . , . , . . , , . , . , . , . , , . - , , . , . , , , . . . , . , , . , , , .

    7. ?

. , . : . , . : , , , . , . : , , ; , , ; , . ; [ ]. 11:1-8 , . . . , , , . ? : 1. ? , . , . 2. ? . 3. ? . 4. ? , . 5. ? , . , . , . , ? ? - . , , . , . , , , . , . . , , - - , , . , , , . , , , , , . , . , , , . ? : - . , . - . . . - . . . . , , , . , , , , , . . . - , , , , . - , . , , . , . , , . . , , , . , , . , . , , . . , . 10 , . 100 , . 1000 , , , , , . ? , OS/360. . . , , - 1410-7010. , , .. . . . , . . , . , . , , . , , . , , . . , . -, , , . -, . , . ! 100 Time-Life , . , 150 , . . , . . 90 3 5 3 , , , . . , , , . , . , , . , , . , , , . ? , , , , . . , , (LIFO) . , , . , . , . - , . - . . . ARPA. . . - .1 , , , . , . , , . , . n , (n2-n)/2 , , 2n , . . , . , , - . . , . , , , . , , . , , , . , , . : 1 - , 2 - , 3 - , 4 - , 5 - , 6 - . , . , . ? , . . , , , - . . , , . ? , , , , , . . . , , " ". . . , . , , . , , . , . . , . . -, , . , , - -. -, . - , . , . , - . , , , . , . , . , . . , ( , , , ..) , , , , , . . , . , - , . , - . ", ". , : - . , , , , - , , , - . , . , . : - , . , ? : . , . , , , . - , , , , . - , ! ! , , , : ? - , , , , . , , , , , , . - , , , - . - , . - , , , . , . , , . , . , - , , - , , . - , - , - . , . . . . - , . . - , , - , - , - , - , , . , , . ! - , . - -, , . . . - . - , . . - . . : ! ? . - . . : . , .2 . . , , 3 " ". , . , , , . . , .

    8.

- . - , . ( - , , , 1732 - 1757 (. .).) ? ? ? , , , . -, , , , , . , . -, , , , . , , 3200 , , 178 , 35800 . , , 80000 .1 , , , . , , . , , , . , , , , ( ). . 8.1 . , , (Nanus) (Farr)2 System Development Corporation. 1,5: = () ( )1,5. , , (Weinwurm)3, , 1,5. , . , (Morin).4 . . 8.1 (Charles Portman), ICL - Computer Equipment Organization (Northwest) , , . , , .. , . , - . , . , , 50 . - , , , , , , .. , .6 (Joel Aron), IBM , , ( 25 30000 ).7 ( ) : 10000 5000 1500 - , . . (John Harr), Electronic Switching System, Bell Telephone Laboratories, 1969 .8 8.2, 8.3 8.4. 8.2. , , , - . -. , . , , , .. . 8.2 , ESS : 600 , - 2200. , , , . , - ? , ? - , ? ? . , . , , . 8.3 8.4 . OS/360 OS/360 , OS/360 . 600-800 . 2000-3000 . , , . , . . 8.3 . 8.4 , OS/360 . , , .9 OS/360 . . (Corbato) MAC 1200 PL/I MULTICS ( 1 2 ).10 . , MULTICS . , . . . , ! , ! : - , , , , , , .11 - .12

    9.

... , . , " " ? , , , . , , . IBM APL. $400 . 160 . Model 165 1 $12. , $400 $1920 . APL , $400 $320 . , , , 2 , 400 . , -747 , 27 . : " ?" , , ( ) ? $4800 - , , ? , , , , , .. , . , , , , , , , . , , , . , . , . , . , , . "", . OS/360 , , . , , . , . OS/360 , - Stretch 1410-7010. . . . , , , . , . , . , , , . , , OS/360. . Fortran H Model 65 ! , . , . : , . . . , . , , , . . , , . : , . , , . , , , . , , , . . . . , . . . , , . , , . . ? , . , . , , . : , , , . . , . - . . , . . , . , , . - - . , , . . , . . , . -, , . , . , , . -, , . , , , : , . , . - , . , . , , , , , n2 n log n . . . - , , . , -, , : . , , . , IBM 650. , , . Fortran Digitek , . , , -. ( 6 " "1 , .2) , , , , . - .

    10.

: , . . , . -, , , , . . , . , . . , . , , , , , . , . ? . , , , , . . . , , . . . , . , , , , . . . , , . , : , . , . , , . , . , , . , , , . , . , . . . , , . , . , . , , . , . , : . . . ( , ). . . . . , , : , , , , . : . - : , , , . , ; . , , , . , , , , . : . , , , , . : . , . . : . : . : . : . , : ", , , ".1 , , . , . ? -, . , . -, . -, . , , , . , , , , . , . , , , . " ", , . , . , , 20 , , , . - : , , , , , . , , , . , . . , : , , , . . , , . , .

    11.

. . . , -. . - , , , . , , . , 50 , 10 . . , , , . , . . , , , . , , , , . . , .2 , , , , . , , . . , , . , . , , , . - . , , , , . - , - , . , , - . , , , .3 , , , . . . , , . , , , . , , , . , . " " , .4 - , , . , , . , . , , . . . , , . , , . - - , . . , . , , , . " , , , . , , , ." , . , , . , . . , , , . , . -, " ", . - , . , , , Bell Labs, . " ". , IBM, (. 11.1). . . 11.1 IBM . . . . , "", "". . , - . , . , . , , ! . , , , , . , . , . . , . , . : , . ( , , , , .) , . , . , , . . 40 . , . , . . 11.2. , . , . , . . , , , . .5 . 11.2 , (20-50 ) . " , ". ? -, - . , . , , . -, , . , . , , , , - . , . , , , , , , - , . , .6 , , , , . , . - . . . . . , , , , . , . , . " - ", - . . . : . , , , - . - , , . , . , .7 , , . , , .

    12.

. , , . , , - . , , , . . - , , , . -, , . , , . . , . . . , . , . . , . . , , ? , . , . , . , . , , . .1 . - , , , . - , , . , , . ? , , , , . , . , : , , , , 1 , 100 . , , 15 , . , . . , . . , - , , - , . . OS/360 System/360 . , S/360 , . . 16 , . 12.1. , - . . 12.1 . S/360 . ( ), . 1401 , . . , . , , , . . , . . , , ( ), . , , , . - , , . . , . , . , . , 701- , , , , . , , , . , . . . , . , . , , , . - , . - . , , . , . , , , . , , . , , . , . . , , . , - . , . . , , . . , . , , . . OS/360 . , . . (W. R. Crowley), 7010 . 7010 S/360. , , . . , , , . . , , . . , , . . . , . . 7010 , , . . - , , , . - . , OS/360. , Bell Labs, ICL .2 , . - . . , . - , , , . , , , , . , . . , . , . . (J. W. Franklin), . , OS/360 . , , OS/360 , . . . -, OS/360 , . , . OS/360 , . -, , , . , , , . (, " ") . . . " ", . , . . , . - , OS/360 . , . : ) ) . , , . . - . ( 8). , , , . , , . , , , , , . , , , . . , . , ? : , ; ; . , , , . , , , , .3, 4 , , . , , , . , , 1 5 , , .5 ? - PL/I.6 ; ; - , , , . APL; PL/I . . MULTICS . MULTICS ( TSS IBM) , : , . , . , MULTICS . . , , - . .7 . 12.2 , , . Bell Labs. 12.2. , . , , . - , .. , , , .8 , , . . .

    13.

. , , , ? , IV , , : " , , , , ". : " , , , ?" , ? ? - ? , . . - , . , 4, 5 6, . , , . , . . . Safeguard, Bell Telephone Laboratories, : " - . , ".1 , - , . . . , : " , , ". . 1971 , .2 , , , . , . , , . , . , . , , , . . , . . , , . . -, . -, . - , , . , - , . . , . . . , . . , , (Dijkstra)3 (Boehm) (Jacopini).4 , , , DO WHILE , IF...THEN...ELSE. . , GO TO , . , , . - , , n- ( CASE) (GO TO ABNORMAL END). , GO TO , . , , , . . . , . . -, . , . - - , . , . , , , . . START, . . . . , . , , , . , . . , , , , , . , . . . , , 2000-4000 , 8-16 . , . , . TESTRAN OS/360, . . 1959 (Codd) 5 (Strachey)6 , , , . , . , , . -. , , , . , - , . 1963 7090. MULTICS, TSS . , , , - . . . . , , , , . (Gold) , , .8 , - . . , . : , , . : . . . . , (Gruenberger),9 .10, 11 . , . : , , . , .12 . , , , , . . - " ". , , (.. ). , . , , , . , , , , , , : , . " ". , , , . , , , . . . , . , , , , . . "" , , . , . - , , , - . , , . , , . - -. . , , .. - - , . OS/360 , . - . , , - , .13 . , . , - . , . , , : , ; ; . System/360 . . , . , . . , . , . , . , , , . . . , - . , , . , ! , ! ! ! , . , , . , . , , , , . . , - , , . , , , . , , . , . , . . , . , . , , .14 , , . : . . , .

    14.

. , ? ... . , . , : , . , : , , . . , , , , . - . , . , . , , , , - . - . , . ? ? , . , , . - , . . , . , " 90 " . " 99 " . " " - , .1 , 100- . " ", " 100 , ", " ". , . , . , , . , , , . , , , . : 1. , , , . 2. . 3. , . , , . . , , , , . . " " - ? ? . , , . , , . , , , , , . . , , , . , . , - , . . , . , ? . , . , , . , , . , , , , . , , . . , . , . " ". , , , . , , . , , - . ? . , . , , . . : , , , .3 . . . , , . , . , , , . . . - . - . . . , , . , , . . , , , . , , , , , . , , , - . , , , . . . . - , . . ( 14.1 .) . , , , , , , . . Bell Telephone Laboratories : - "" "". , a priori . , , ( ). , , - - . , . 14.1 , , - .4 . , ( ) , . . , . , - . , , . . (A. M. Pietrasanta), , . . , . . , , , , . , .

    15.

, . , , . - . , . : -. , , -, . , , ! , , , , . . , . . , . . * (Thomas J. Watson, Sr.) -. , , . , . , . , : " , , ." , , , . , . - , . . , , , . , .. , . . , , . ? : , , , , , . . . . , , * . - IBM (. .) . , , : 1. . ? 2. . , ? 3. . ? ? 4. . ? 5. -, . 6. , . 7. . ? ? 8. . ? 9. . ? ? . . , . . , , , . . , , , , . , , . : 1. , . 2. , , , . 3. , , . . . , , . , , , . : 1. - . . . 2. . 3. . 4. - , , . 5. , , , , . . - - . - . - . - , . - , , , , . - , , . . 15.1 . . 15.1 ( W. V. Wright) , ANSI -. , , .. -. - , . 1 , . ,2 , (. 15.2). . . , , , , . GO TO, GO TO, , . -. - , . , -, . , - , . " " . , , . , , -. : " [] , , ?" ( 15:10). - -. , . , , . . , , , -, - , . . , - . , . , : . , , . . , , , -, . , - , . . , . . - , , . . , , , . , , . . 15.2 - PL/I () - , . - . . , " ", . , . , , , . . , . . 15.3 PL/I.3 , . 1. , , . ( QLT) ( 4), , . , . 2. , - , . - . 3. PROCEDURE. 4. , , . , , , , , . 5. , : ) ; ) ; ) . 6. . . DECLARE . , , . , . 7. . 8. , , . 9. . 10. , . . . 11. , . , . 12. , . . ? , , . . 15.3 , . , . APL, , PL/I, . , . , . , . , , . , , . - ? , , . , , . ? , . , . , , . . . , -, . , . , , , - . 16. - , , , , . 1 - , , - . , , , , , . , ? 9/10 , , , . , , , . : - , , . - . - , , . - . , , , , , . , . ( , , ) , , , , . - , , . , , . , , , , . , , . - . , . , , , . , . "" . , , . , , , . . ? , , , - , , , , - . , - . -, , , , . 30 / . , : . . -, , , . , - , , - , , . . . , : , , . , . . , , , , . , , . , . . : , , . . , , , , ( , ). , , . , , . , . , , . . , - , . , , . , . , , . , , . , , , . , . . , , , . , , , . , - . , . , . , . - , . . , - . . , , . . , , . , , . . , , , , . , , , . , . , , . , . . . , , , . . , . , . , . , , . , : , . , . . . -, , . , , , . -, , . , , , , . , , , . , . . . . , , . , . , , . . . , , - , - . , , , , . , , , , . , . , .2 , , , . , . , , , , . . . , , . , , , , . ? . : , , . , , , , , . , , , . , , - , . , , , . . , , , , . . , , , . . , . - , , , . , . , , . , , , . , , . - . , , 100 . . . , Unix Interlisp, , . ? , , . , , , , , . , , , , . . , , . , . ? , , ? ? Ada . Ada - 80- . Ada , , . , Ada, Ada , , . Ada, , , , . , , , . - , . , 60- , , . Ada , . , . , , , . , , Ada, , - . Ada. Ada , . - . , , - , .3 . (Mark Sherman) , , : , . , , , , . Ada ( ) Modula. , Simula-67, , . : . . , , . , . . , . - , 9/10 , . . . , , .4 . , , , " ", , . : . -1: , . -2: , , , . , , ... , , -, . ... - -1, , , ... , , ... -, .5 . , , , , . , , . . , , . , . -2 . . . .5 , ? - , , , , . , . : - . - . , , . . (Edward Feigenbaum) , , , , . , . ? : , , , .. , , . , , . , . , , , . , , , , . . , , . , , , . , . , . . . : , , , . , . , , , . . , , , . . "" . 40 " " - , . , .7 , - , , : , , .8 , , , . . . . , . , : - . - , . - . , . , . . , , - .9 , . , , - . - . , - , . -, , - .10 , . - , - -, , , : , . -, , - . " " " ". , , , : . . , . , . , , . , , , , , - , . , , - . , , : , . . . . , , , ? , - , ? , . , , . , , . , . , . . . , . , , . - , . . ? , , , , , : , . , , , . , , , . , , . . . ? ? . , , , . , . , . . , , , , . : , , , , , . , - . , . , . - . , . , -, , , , , . , , , . Unix. . - . , . 100 000 , . ! , , , . , , . , , . , . , . , , n n . . , , . ? . 50- 60- , , , .. , . 80- . ? . , , . . , , 20 . . , 1960 2 , , 250 000 , . , 50 000 , , , , . , , . , : . , , , , . , . , Cobol Report Program Generator, . , . , . , - , , . , , . . - , . , , , . , . o . , , . , , . , , , . - " , , " - . . , , , . . . , , -, , , - , . , , , . , , . , , , .. - , , . , , , . , , - , , . : , . 1958 , , (building) (writing). . . , , , (specifications), (assembly of components), (scaffolding). . . , , , , , , . , . , . , . , , . , , . . .11 , , , . , , , , . , . . , - . . . , . . , . , , . . , , . , .12 . , , . , , . . , , . . , , , - (Software Engineering Institute) - . . , , , . , . . . , , . - . , , , , , . . , , . , , . Unix, APL, Pascal, Smalltalk Fortran - , Cobol, PL/I, Algol, MVS/370 MS-DOS - (. 16.1). . 16.1 ? , , , , , . . , , , . , . . , - , , , . , , , , . , - , , , , - . ? , : - . - . - , . - , , , , . - .

    17. " "

- . III , , , . , " " " : " ( 16 ) IFIP ( ) 1986 .1 "Computer" , , " ",2 " " , . , , . "Computer" : , . - . , . - - ! " " , ( 1986 ) . , , . " -" , " " , .3 , , , . "", , , . , , , 1986 1987 , , . , " ", .. , . , , : " , , ". . , . . , . (accident). 16 "". , , (accident) , (accidental), , .4 accidental "" " ", , "", "" (incidental) "" (appurtinent). . , (Dorothy Sayers) , : ) , ) ) .5 , (essence), , , (accident), . . ( ), : , - . , (, - ) (, ). , . , , , .5 , , , , 9/10. "" , 9/10, ( ), . . "" (Bruce Blum) 1959 , (Herzberg, Mausner, Sayderman).7 , . , , , , , , . "" , : , , . , ? " ", (Bred Cox) 1990 , , .8 . "" . -, , " , ". , , , . - , "" , , . , . , , , . , , . . , , . ( ) . , MYSYGMA Sohdal and Partners, , : , , , . . (Steve Lukasik) Northrop , , , , : , "" . , , ... , . ..., , . . , , . . , "" - (, ). , . , , . . , , - , , . , , . , , , - , , . , - - , . "" , . : - , ; - , . (David Harel) 1992 " " "" .9 . "", 1984 " "10 " ". , " ". , , "" , : " , ". . , , , , . , - . "" : " , ... ... , ". , , 1986 , , . 1986-1996 , , , , . "" , ? , , , "" ""? , ? "" , " " " - ". IFIP : , - , . , , , - , , . -. , . , , , . , . . . - . - . ( ). , .11 , , , . "" . , "" : - . - " ". - 10 , , " ". , . - , , . , . " ", . . . , . , (Glass, Vessey, Conger) 1992 , .12 10, 40 , , . 1975 80-? : . , : " , 10 ". , / , , , , . 40 . 40 . . , "" 1952 , 1986, . . . -, "" , 1950- . , . 40 : 1952 , . -, 1950-: , , , , 100-200 , . . , , . , 25 , , . 1950- . 1952 Univac 1950 , .13 , , ..14 , , ..15 1955 50 100 -.16 1956 80 000 . 1957 SAGE ANFSQ/7, 30 , , 75 000 .17 , - 1952 . . , , "Vanilla Framework" (" "). , , , .18 , , . , . , , . . , , - : . , , . . "" , . , , . ... . , , , . . , , , . , , , - , . . : " ?". , : " ?" , , . . : (Capers Jones) , , . " "", , - ", - . - ", , ."19 , , , . , . . (Boehm) , , , IBM . , (Coqui) , , ( , ). : 1970- , , , . , .20 ? . , , , . , Cobol, 10 - - . (Ed Yourdin) : " , ." (Tom DeMarco) , " 10 : , ." : , . "" , , : " ... ". , , . , , , , , . . - - , . : , . , , . - , Microsoft Works ClarisWorks, . , . , . (Ivan Selin), American Management Systems 1987 : , ... , , ( ) " , , ". , , , , . , , , () , , , . , : , . - : ? . , , . - . - . . : , . Smalltalk C++, - - . - , : (.. ) . . - ? "" . ? . , The C++ Report, : , , , . , , " " " ", " ", " ". , , C++ , .21 , - . : , , , , . , , ; . . , - , . : . - . , , , , - . , . , . . , . , . , - , . - , , . , , , , , . : "- , . ."22 , - , . - , . , , - . C++, , C . ? , - . - . - . , - . , , , . , . : , 30% . 75% . .23 . (W. Huang) , .24 (Van Snyder) JPL , : , , . - - , , , , , . , "" - . . : 1) , , 2) , - , . , . , , , , , . , . , , , , - . , . ? , . , .25 , , 5000 , , 500 10 .26 , ( ) " , ". , 50 200 , , , , - , . , , , , . " ." : - , , . , . , - , . , , : " , ." . , 1 20 .27 : . . , . , : " , , "" ."28 , 1, . , , , . . : , , , , . , , . , . , . , , , . , , . . , 3000 . 10 20 - . , , ( ) ( ) , . . 10000 , - . - . , , , , - . , , . : - , , . - . , , . - , . : , . - , , - , . . . (R. L. Glass) 1988 , 1995 : ? . . , , . . , , - . - , , - . - - , . , , , , , - .29 18. " -": ? , . , "" , 1975 . , 1975 , ? ? ? , , , 1975 , : , . ( : , , ?) . . , , . 1. 1.1 , . , , ; , , , , ; . 1.2 " , ", : - , - . - , . - , . - , , . - - , , , , , . 1.3 : - . - (, ), ; . - : . - , , , . - . - , . 2. - 2.1 - , , . 2.2 , ; , . 2.3 : " ". 2.4 , . 2.5 - . 2.6 , , . - , , . 2.7 . 2.8 : 1/3 - , 1/6 - , 1/4 - 1/4 - . 2.9 . 2.10 , . 2.11 : , . 2.12 : , , . 3. 3.1 - 10 (, ). 3.2 , . , . 3.3 - . 3.4 , , . ( , .) 3.5 . 3.6 , , , , . 3.7 . 4. , 4.1 " ." 4.2 " ", . ( , , .) 4.3 . 4.4 " ." ( .) 4.5 " , , - . , ." 4.6 . , . 4.7 . 4.8 , . ( .) 5. 5.1 , , , - , . 5.2 : - , , , , . - , . - , . - . - . 5.3 ; . 5.4 OS/360 . (, Windows NT - 1990 .) 5.5 . 6. 6.1 , - . 6.2 , , . 6.3 - , - . 6.4 , , . . 6.5 , , ; . 6.6 ( - : Mac WIMP, ROM). 6.7 " , () , ". 6.8 , ; . ( .) 6.9 " - , , ." 7. ? 7.1 - , , . 7.2 " , , - - , , ." . 7.3 : , . ( .) 7.4 " , , , , , ." 7.5 " ( )." 7.6 . 7.7 " , " . 7.8 " ( )." ( " ". , WWW-.) 7.9 . 7.10 , , , . 7.11 OS/360 . 7.12 ( 1975 ) , . 7.13 ( ). . 7.14 , , , : , - , , . 7.15 - . ( , .) 7.16 . 7.17 . 7.18 , , . 7.19 , , (" "), . 7.20 : , . . 7.21 : - . - , - . - , - . 8. 8.1 , . 8.2 , , . 8.3 . 8.4 , 1,5. ( 1,05 1,2.)1 8.5 ICL , 50 , . 8.6 IBM, 1,5 10 . 8.7 Bell Labs, 0,6 , - 2,2 . 8.8 OS/360 : 0,6-0,8 - 2-3 . 8.9 MULTICS , 1,2 , PL/I, ! 8.10 . 8.11 . 9. 9.1 , . , . 9.2 , , , - , . , . 9.3 , , , . 9.4 , . 9.5 : , , . 9.6 , , . . 9.7 . 9.8 , , . 9.9 , , ( ). 9.10 , , , . ( . , .) 9.11 , , . 9.12 , . 9.13 - . (, .) 9.14 , . 9.15 . 9.16 . - . 10. 10.1 : , . . 10.2 , , , , , , , . 10.3 : , , , , , , , . 10.4 : , , , , , . 10.5 . 10.6 . -, . 10.7 . 10.8 . 10.9 - . 10.10 - , ; . 10.11 , , 20 , , , . 10.12 " ", , . 11. 11.1 - , , , . 11.2 , - , . ( -. , , -, .) 11.3 : , , , . 11.4 , , . 11.5 () , , , , . 11.6 - . 11.7 " , - " (). 11.8 , , . 11.9 () . 11.10 ( ) , , , . 11.11 , , , . , , . ( .) 11.12 , , . 11.13 . ( .) 11.14 " , , , , , " (). 11.15 , . 11.16 , , . , . 11.17 . . 11.18 , , : , , . 11.19 . . , : 11.20 ; , , , , . 11.21 40 . 11.22 : , . 11.23 . 11.24 ( 20 50 ) . 11.25 , , , - . 11.26 , , . 11.27 . , : 11.28 , (OS/360), , , . 11.29 , . , . ( , , , . .) 12. 12.1 , . 12.2 , , . , , . 12.3 . 12.4 : , . 12.5 , , . 12.6 , , . 12.7 20 ( 1975 ) , . ( 1995 .) 12.8 , . , , . 12.9 : 1) " ", 2) , 3) -. . 12.10 , , - , , . 12.11 (., Unix), , . 12.12 , . . , . 12.13 . ( .) 12.14 , . . 12.15 , , . 12.16 - PL/I. ( .) 12.17 . (- .) 12.18 - , . 12.19 , . 13. 13.1 4, 5 6 , . 13.2 , " , ". 13.3 . . 13.4 " ( ) (1965- 1975)." 13.5 . 13.6 . 13.7 , . 13.8 , .. , , ( ), . 13.9 , , . , . ( , , 1995 .) 13.10 , ( ) : - , - . 13.11 ( ) , . 13.12 . 13.13 , , ( " " , ). ( .) 13.14 "" , , 50 , . 13.15 , " ". 13.16 . 13.17 , , - . . ( Microsoft . .) 14. 14.1 " , ? ... ." 14.2 , , , , . 14.3 , , . 14.4 , , , . 14.5 , , . 14.6 , , , , , . 14.7 . ( Microsoft : " , , ."2) 14.8 , . 14.9 , , . 14.10 , , . 14.11 , . 14.12 " ". 14.13 : , , , . 14.14 , . 14.15 ; , . 14.16 , . . 14.17 : " , - "" ( ) "" ( ). ." 14.18 , , . 15. 15.1 , , - - , , . 15.2 , , : -. 15.3 , , . 15.4 , , . 15.5 . , . 15.6 , . (. ). 15.7 : , , . 15.8 , , , , (. ). 15.9 - . - . (- - .) 15.10 - - . ( MILSPEC .) 15.11 - - ANSI. 15.12 , , . 15.13 : - , . - , , . - , . 15.14 , , "", "". . . 15.15 . E.1 , , ( ) . E.2 . 19 " -" , . , . ? , . . , , . . " -", , . , , : - ? ? - , , . . " -" ? ? -, , , , , , ? , 20 , 30 , ? , , . , . 16, , . , , . , , . , " -" , . . 1975 , , . . - , , , . , . , "-" , . , , . : " , ? ? ?" , . , , , . , , . : . , , . , . (, , . Macintosh. , , , . MS-DOS.) , . , . . . , - . , , . , , , : . , ? "-". , - . . . , - , , . , . . , , , . , . , - . . , , .. , . , . . , , . . , . , . , . -. . . , , , , . 20 , , , - . , , , . : . , , , , . , . , , , , . . , , , , . . , , , , . . . , , .1 , . . . , . Microsoft Word 6.0 : " ; ... , Word 6.0 ." , Word 6.0 4 , - " Macintosh IIfx Word 6".2 . , , . , . , , . , : - , - , - , , , - . . . ? .3 , , , , . . -, , . -, , , . -, , . . , , . ( (Jeff Conklin) .4 , , .) : . , , . ? , " -" (. 11), 5 . , "". , . "" , 5, - , . "" 11 - . , , , - , . WIMP , , , (Windows, Icons, Menus, Pointers - WIMP). , . (Doug Englebart) - 1968 .5 Xerox - , Alto, (Bob Taylor) . Apple Lisa - . Apple Macintosh 1985 . Microsoft Windows IBM PC . .6 . WIMP , , - , . , , . , , - . . ; . , . , , . , , - , . , ( ) . WIMP ? : . , - - . - , , : ", ", ", " ", ". , , , . . - "", . . . , . . , , , - , - . , . ( , .) , , : , , . , . , , , .7 , , () . , . . , , , : ; ; ; (, ) . -, , , - , . . , . WIMP , . . , - , ? , . , . . , : , . , , , , . , - . ? - , , WIMP. + , . , (^) Z X, ^z, ^x, ^c, ^v, ^s. . , . , , , , , . . , , ^z . , . , - , , , , , . , , , . . . , , . , , . , , , . , -. Apple. , , , , . , 6 . WIMP: . , , WIMP . . . , Voice Navigator Dragon PC, . , ! 11 : " , ". - , . - - . , , 19.1. 1970 (Winton Royce) : - ; - , . "-", " "8. 11 - , . , 2. 1/3 , 1/6 - , 1/4 - 1/4 - . . 19.1 , , , , . , , , . " " . , . , , . , , . , , . , , . - , . , , , . , , 1975 , DOD-STD-2167 - . , . , .9 . , , , , . , , . , , . -, - . : . (Harlan Mills), , () (. 19.2), . , , , , .10 . 19.2 (, ) . Voila! , , , . , , . . , . ( .) , , . , , . : - ; - , (, ). 22 , . , , . . , , . . 20- . . .11 , , , (. 19.3). . 19.3 , , . . , , , , . . Microsoft: " ". (James McCarthy) , Microsoft. , . : , , . ? ( ) ( ). . , , . . , , . . . , , . . , . . : " , , , ." , , . , Bell Northern Research , 12 , . . , ? , , . . : ( , ) , , , .12 , , . , , , , . , . , , . , , , , . Microsoft ? . , . , . , - 7 , , . Operating System/360 , , .. , 10000 . , " ", , , , . , , , , . , .13 7 " ". , . , , , . , . , , , " ". . , , . 16 : - , ; - ; - , . - , , , : , , . , , . - . . . : , . , , . , - , , ( ) .14 , - , , , , , , . , , , 1. , : , , . - 16 17. -? , . (Barry Boehm) 63 , , 25 - TRW. " " , . , , , . , . - , , - . , :15 - , , : T = 2,5 ()1/3. - - , . , . - , . . - , . - , . ! , . ? ( ), . - (Abdel-Hamid) (Madnick) " : ".16 . , , , . , , , , . , " , " ( ). , , , , . (Stutzke) , .17 , , . , , , . , . , , , .., . , , , ! , , . , - , , . , - , . " " , . , , , . ( ) , - , . , IBM Operating System/360 ( MVS/370). , , , , , , , . . COCOMO , , , . . . , , . . (DeMarco) (Lister) " : ", 1987 . , " , ". , " , , ". , , , . " ", , . , , , ... , , ( ) ?18 . . , , . , , , , , , . , , , . . , , . , , , . , , , , , - , , . , , . . . (E. F. Schumacher) " : " , . " " Quadragesimo Anno XI: , . , ... , , , , , .19 : , , , " ". ? ... , -. , ... - , .20 . , , , . . , , . , , , - . . Microsoft : (30-40 ) , , . , , . , . , . (Earl Wheeler), IBM, , IBM. . ! , , . . , . . , , , , . , . , XI: , . ? , , , - . , -. . . 20 : ? : , : - , ; - ; - .21 , , . , , 20 . , , . , - . . , , - . . 300 , . . .22 : , , , , , , , . , , . , , , : . . - , , , , . . , , . , - , , , - . . , , . , Adobe Photoshop, , . ", ". , . , 1945 , .23 - - , . , , . . 1970- . . , . 60- , Unix- 1985-. , , . , . 20 . 1975 - . , , , . , , . - , . . WIMP . 24 72 , , , . - . . , . . . 1975 , : - , , . - , , - , , , , . - , . , , . - , , , , . , : , . , , . Ada , . (4GL). , " 4GL - ". 4GL . . 1975 - , , , . ! , , ( ): - IBM MVS VM - DEC VMS - Unix - IBM PC, DOS, OS/2 Windows - Apple Macintosh. . , : , . , . . , . . , , , , . , , . "" . . , . : , . , . , . 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