, - . _ - . , . , . : , - . _ - "" , . . ; . _ - . , , , , , , . 8.7. . ; ; . _ , " , " [19], " " [32], " " [16, 17, 33] ., . . , . , , . , . ; . . . _ , , . , . . , , , -. [1] Portmann A.A. Zoologist Looks at Humankind/ translated by Schaefer J. Columbia University Press, 1900. [2] Huxley J. Evolution. The Modern Synthesis. George Allen & Unwin, 1965. [3] Webster's New World Encyclopedia. Prentice Hall, 1990. [4] Sootin H. Isaac Newton. Simon & Schuster. Inc., 1955. [5] Magill F.N. Great Events from History II. Vol.5Salem Press. P.2014-2019, 1991. [6] Ravetz J.R. Scientific Knowledge and Its Social Problems. Oxford University Press, 1971. [7] Mumford L. The Myth of the Machine: Techniques and Human Development. Harcourt Brace & World. Inc., 1967. [8] ACM Communications. Special issue on natural language processing. Vol.33. No 8, August 1990. [9] ACM Communications. Special issue on intelligent agents. Vol.37. No 7. July 1994. [10] Denbigh K. Entropy in Relation to Incomplete Knowledge. Cambridge University Press, 1985. [11] MacGregor G. The Everyman Dictionary of Religion and Philosophy. J.M. Dent & Sons Ltd. London, 1990. [12] Needam J. Science and Civilisation in China. Vol.2: History of Scientific ThoughtCambridge: The University Press, 1971. [13] Capra F. The Tao of Physics. Vantam Company USA, New Age Series, Murray Pollinger, 1975. [14] Struik D.J. A Cioncise History of Mathematics. Dover publications, Inc., 1987. [15] Tofler A. The Third Wave. William Morrow, 1980. [16] Brown L.R. et al. State of the World 1990. Worldwatch Institute, w.W. Norton & Co. Inc., 1991. [17] Brown L.R. et al. State of the World 1984. Worldwatch Institute, w.W. Norton & Co. Inc., 1984. [18] Gribbin J. The Hole in the Sky. C/o Murray pollinger. [19] Ramphal S. Our Country, The Planet - Forging A Partnership for Survival. Washington. DC 20006, 1992. [20] The Union of Scientists. Empty Promise - The Growing Case against Star Wars. Beam Press, 1986. [21] Watanabe Y. Does AIDS Destroy Mankind? Jiji-Tsushin Corp., 1986 (in Japanese). [22] Matsumoto K. What Is AIDS? Daimon Press, 1987 (in Japanese). [23] Nagai A. Devised Fear. Kodan-Sha, 1986 (in Japanese). [24] Ashima K. Disease at the End of Century. Kappa-Science, 1986 (in Japanese). [25] Yergin D. The Prince, The Epic Quest For Oil, money And Power, 1990. [26] WAES. Energy - Global Prospects 1985-2000. McGraw-Hill Co., 1977. [27] Bockris J. Energy - The Solar Hydrogen Alternative. Australia and New Zealand Book Co., 1975. [28] Kahn H. The Next 200 Years. Hundson Institute, 1976. [29] Commoner B. The Poverty of Power and Economic Crisis. Alfred A. Knopf Inc., 1976. [30] Meadows D.H., Meadows D.L. The Limits to Growth - A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. Universe Books, 1972. [31] The Global 2000 Report to the President / A report prepared by the Councilon Environmental Quality and the Department of State, 1980. [32] Senator Al Gore Earth in the Balance. Houghton Miffiin Co., 1992. [33] Brown L.R. et al. State of the World 1987. World Watch Institute, W.W. Norton & Co. Inc., 1988. [34] IIlich I. Energy and Equity. Calder & Boyars Ltd., 1979. [35] Yoshimura T. Recycling toward Super Power for Living. Chuuo-Hoki, 1992 (in Japanese). [36] Tsuchida A. Questions about Environment Protection Movements. JICC Press, 1972 (in Japanese). [37] Sato S. Science and Technology. San-Ichi Shobo, 1978 (in Japanese). [38] Sato S. Choice of Values. San-Ichi Shobo, 1982 (in Japanese). [39] Sato S. Modern Science And Mankind. San-Ichi Shobo, 1979 (in Japanese).   ( ) [1] : . . . .: , 2000.431 . ( ": "). [2] Modelling and Analysis of Safety, Risk and Quality in Complex Systems // Proceed.of the Intern.Scientific School MA SQR-2001, St.Peterburg, Russia, June 18-22, 2001 / by Editor I.Ryabinin and E.Slojentsev. SPb.: Omega, 370 p. [3] .., .., .. - . .: , 1997. 320 . [4] .., .. . .: -. 1, 1998. 208 . 2, 2000. 232 . [5] .., .., .. . .: -, 2001. 247 . [6] .. - . - .: , 2000. 360 . [7] .., .., .. - , / . . . .: , 1999. 120 .  . 1930 .. , 1954, 1956 1960 . 1959 1976 , . (, ) , 1963 - . 1944 , . 1994 1997 . , . . 1946 .. , 1969, 1971 1976 . 1976 19788 , . 1998 - . , . . . - - . .   . 1941 .. - . , . . . 2001 ABI, , . . - , . , , . - , , . E-mail: ivchenko@peterlink.ru . 1939 .. . , , . , , , - . E-mail: sol@sapr.ipme.ru

4.1.

,

 

 

..

2200 -- 1500

 

210

 

..

0 -- 99

 

 

206 -- 220

: " "

 

 

105

 

 

300

 

 

650

 

 

618 -- 907

: , ,

 

 

 

768

 

960 -- 1279

:

 

 

 

1000 -- 1099

 

1220

 

 

1100

 

 

 

1100 -- 1200

1189

1380

 

1390

 

 

 

(1400 -- 1468)

1450

(1505 -- 1564)

" "

1543

 

3.1.

U

V

S

T env

P env

σ

,

q

,

W

( ≥ 0 )

 

 

: T out, P out

 

. 3.1.

 

. 4.1.

 

.4.2.